Question.3716 - ENVR 1401 Age Distributions and Future Growth Chapter 7 in the Online Textbook covers characteristics and changes in human populations. This lab uses age-class histograms and a computer model to examine future population growth trends. Section 7.3 and Figure 7.14 in the online textbook have specific references to age-class histograms. Here is a link to the website you will use to gather data and answer the questions below: https://www.learner.org/wp-content/interactive/envsci/demographics/demog.htmlDemographic Transitions A demographic transition in a population is a pattern of falling death rates and birth rates that tends to accompany economic development. See Fig. 7.11 and general discussion in the online textbook, and heres links to videos with explanations: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8RFCk6l5dJ0 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uqLy3ofLeiI Below is an idealized version of the Demographic Transition Model which puts five stages on demographic transition: Heres a short description of each transition stage: Stage 1: death rates and birth rates both high, and track closely with each other Stage 2: fall in death rates and a corresponding increase in population Stage 3: low death rates and birth rates diminish Stage 4: death and birth rates both low, leading to population stability Stage 5: aging and contraction of population To examine model predictions, you will run a simulation from 2015 to 2050 for each of the nine countries. Choose Demographic Transition Lesson from the dropdown menu at the top of page. On the Data Table, record the initial birth rate, death rate and population growth rates at the start (2015). Use the birth and death rates, and the shape of the histogram/pyramid, to characterize which stage of the demographic transition model (1-5) each country is in (see also Fig. 7.11 and Fig. 7.14 and explanations in online textbook). Next, for the second table, run the model for each country to the end of the simulated period, and record the birth rate, death rate and population growth rates at the end (2050). Use the birth and death rates, and the shape of the histogram/pyramid, to characterize which stage of the demographic transition model (1-5) each country is in (see also Fig. 7.11 and Fig. 7.14 and explanations in online textbook). Answer the questions that follow the tables. Country Birthrate (2015) per woman Death Rate (2015) per year Population Growth (2015) per year Demographic Transition Stage 1-5 (2015) USA 1.98 1.16% 0.78% Stage 4 Brazil 1.72 0.86 % 0.86 % Stage 3 China 1.52 1.05 % 0.47 % Stage 3 India 2.26 0.99 % 1.34 % Stage 2 Indonesia 2.07 0.95 % 1.03 % Stage 2 Iraq 3.15 0.63 % 2.14 % Stage 1 Italy 1.14 1.34 % 0.36 % Stage 4 Japan 1.39 1.40 % -0.10 % Stage 5 Nigeria 4.07 1.11 % 2.65 % Stage 1 Country Birthrate (2050) per woman Death Rate (2050) per year Population Growth (2050) per year Demographic Transition Stage 1-5 (2050) USA 1.98 1.36 % -0.15 % Stage 5 Brazil 1.72 1.42 % -0.26 % Stage 5 China 1.52 1.78 % -0.98 % Stage 5 India 2.26 1.30 % 0.46 % Stage 3 Indonesia 2.07 0.95 % 1.03 % Stage 2 Iraq 3.15 0.88 % 1.72 % Stage 2 Italy 1.41 1.85 % -1.17 % Stage 5 Japan 1.39 1.72 % -1.15 % Stage 5 Nigeria 4.07 1.11 % 2.65 % Stage 1 For the year 2015, in what ways do you suppose living conditions differ between the country that is furthest along in the demographic transition and the country that is earliest in the transition? How do you think the living conditions in these two countries should affect both birth and death rates? Japan, being furthest along (Stage 5), likely has a high standard of living, with advanced healthcare and low birth rates. Nigeria, in Stage 1, probably faces poorer healthcare and less access to education, leading to higher birth and death rates. For the year 2050, compare how the two countries you mentioned in #1 did in the model. Did the differences you compared between birth and death rates affect their transition along the stages of the model? Explain why or why not and how. By 2050, Japan's population continues to shrink with negative growth, while Nigeria still grows rapidly. Japans aging population and low birth rates slowed its transition, while Nigerias high birth rate kept it from advancing stages. Which country (or countries) moved from one stage to the next stage in the model runs from 2015 to 2050? With the data collection, Iraq tends to move from Stage 1 to Stage 2, and India progressed from Stage 2 to Stage 3 between 2015 and 2050. Which countrys (or countries) Population Growth Rate increased from 2015 to 2050? Which factor, birthrate or death rate, seems to have the biggest effect on this change? Why do you think that factor had that effect? Explain. Based on the dataset obtained I believe Nigerias tends to have population growth that remains high and constant alongside birthrate having the most significant effect here, as its birth rate is still much higher than most other countries. Which countrys (or countries) Population Growth Rate decreased from 2015 to 2050? Which factor, birthrate or death rate, seems to have the biggest effect on this change? Why do you think that factor had that effect? Explain. Countries like Japan, Italy, and China tends to have experienced population decrease due to lower birth rates, combined with high death rates due to aging populations, drove the decline. List three social factors that contribute to lower birth rates in the countries farther along the demographic transition. Explain how could these social conditions be encouraged in countries that are not as far along in the demographic transition. According to my understanding about developing countries and based on the trends observed, education for women in terms of empowering them, accessibility to contraception, and socio-economic development all contribute to lower birth rates, wherein these conditions could be encouraged through policy reforms, family planning programs, and increased investment in education in developing countries. People in the prime of life (aged around 20-60, depending on local conditions) support the populations younger and older than themselves (see dependency ratio and Fig. 7.15 in online textbook). Using the Population Pyramids (histograms), explain how could this impact the quality of life in each of the five age-class histogram categories (see also Fig. 7.14 in online textbook). According to my understanding, I believe Nigeria tends to have larger prime age population theres more economic support for the young and elderly; while on the other hand, Japan housing smaller working age population will possibly create strain in terms of supporting growing elderly population, impacting healthcare, pensions, and economic productivity. Population Momentum Population momentum is the time lag between a change in birth/death rates and the slowing of population growth. To model the effect of changing the age of reproduction, the countries of Nigeria and Japan are the examples. Use the Reset button on the simulator if you need to restore the original settings. Click on the Birth Rate in the Vital Rate box to open the Change Birth Rates box, and shift the average age of childbirth up or down there. Use the Reset button at the bottom of the Change Birth Rates box to restore the original ages between each different treatment. Select Population Momentum from the Lesson pulldown menu. Select Nigeria from the Country pulldown menu. Record the initial Birth Death and Growth rates in the Data Table. Predict what you think will happen when the model is run when the average age of childbearing women is increased by 5 years (fewer teenage pregnancies) and record your predictions for Birth Rate, Death Rate and Population growth on the table (rise, fall, similar). After running the model at +5 child bearing age, reset to initial settings and increase the childbearing age to 15 years, run the model and record the results. Then reset to initial settings and then decrease the child bearing age by 5 years from the initial age, run the model and record the results. Nigeria Original Prediction + 5 years +15 years -5 years Birth rate 4.07 Fall 4.27 4.71 4.47 Death rate 1.11 Similar 1.11 1.11 1.11 Population growth 2.65% Fall 2.65 2.65 2.65 Did the pattern of population change match your prediction for an increase in child bearing age of +5 years? Why or why not? Based on the observation from the data recorded, the birth rate slightly increased from 4.07 to 4.27, but I expecting the birth rate to fall because increasing the childbearing age usually results in fewer births as women have children later in life. However, the population growth rate remained the same, suggesting other factors might be stabilizing the effect of the increased age. Which child bearing age setting (+5, +15 or -5 years) best matched your prediction? Why or why not? the +5 years setting came closest because, while the birth rate increased slightly, the death rate remained similar, which was what I anticipated. I expected a decrease in population growth, but the steady growth rate across all settings suggests that birth rates were not as sensitive to childbearing age as I thought. Comparing the +5 year, +15 year and -5 year results, how does an increase or decrease in the average childbearing age group change the population over time? Why do you think countries farther along the demographic transition tend to have older childbearing women than countries not as far along? Increasing childbearing age (+5 and +15) slightly raises the birth rate, while decreasing it (-5) raises it further, but the population growth rate remains constant in all cases, which according to my understanding tends to suggest a sense of complex interaction between childbearing age and other demographic factors. According to my understanding about developing countries further along the demographic transition often have older childbearing women due to more access to education, career opportunities, and contraception, all of which delay family planning and lead to lower birth rates over time implying a stabilize population growth in developed nations. Japan is a country with a population structure almost the opposite of Nigeria. Select Japan from the Country dropdown menu. Use the Reset button on the simulator if you need to restore the original settings. Click on the Birth Rate in the Vital Rate box to open the Change Birth Rates box, and shift the average age of childbirth up or down there. Use the Reset button at the bottom of the Change Birth Rates box to restore the original ages between each different treatment. Select Population Momentum from the Lesson pulldown menu. Select Nigeria from the Country pulldown menu. Record the initial Birth Death and Growth rates in the Data Table. Predict what you think will happen when the model is run when the average age of childbearing women is increased by 5 years (fewer teenage pregnancies) and record your predictions for Birth Rate, Death Rate and Population growth on the table (rise, fall, similar). After running the model at +5 child bearing age, reset to initial settings and increase the childbearing age to 15 years, run the model and record the results. Then reset to initial settings and decrease the child bearing age by 5 years from the initial age, run the model and record the results. Japan Prediction + 5 years +15 years -5 years Birth rate Fall 1.46 1.61 1.53 Death rate Similar 1.40 1.40 1.40 Population growth Fall -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 Did the pattern of population change match your prediction for an increase in child bearing age of +5 years? Why or why not? The birth rate increased slightly to 1.46, which is close to what was expected, though I initially predicted a drop and the death rate stayed similar, and population growth remained negative, which aligned with my expectations that the overall demographic trend would still show decline. Which child bearing age setting (+5, +15 or -5 years) best matched your prediction? Why or why not? The +5 years setting tends to match my prediction wherein the trends show a slight change in birth rate and stable death rate reflected the slower pace of population decline that I anticipated. The larger rise in birth rate under the +15 years scenario was unexpected, indicating a bigger boost in fertility than I originally thought. Many Western European governments are giving monetary incentives to families or employees who have multiple children. Why do you think they do this? How would a baby boom change Japan's demographic trends? According to my understanding, I believe the governments tend to offer incentives to encourage higher birth rates to combat declining populations and aging societies. In Japan, a baby boom would slow down the population decline and potentially increase the younger workforce, balancing the dependency ratio. However, it would need to be sustained over time to make a significant impact on reversing the aging population trend. Social Impacts Iraq is a country where the culture promotes larger families. How can its population become stabilized? Select Social Impacts from the Lesson dropdown menu. Predict what the average death rate and the average birth rate would have to be for the Iraqi population to stabilize or achieve a 0% growth rate by 2050, write your guesses in the appropriate column on the table. Use the Reset button on the simulator between runs to restore the original settings. After changing the parameters of Birth Rate and Death Rate according to your predictions, run the simulator to try to achieve a zero growth rate and record the results for birthrate, death rate and population growth under the Simulator 1 column. If your predicted Simulator 1 settings did not achieve 0% growth, reset the simulator to 2015 settings and change the settings again to try to achieve 0% growth, and record your new settings under Reset 2. Run the model and record your results under Simulated 2. If your predicted Simulator 2 settings did not achieve 0% growth, reset the simulator to 2015 settings and change the settings again to try to achieve 0% growth, and record your new settings under Reset 3. Run the model and record your results under Simulated 3. Answer the questions that follow the table about your results. Iraq Prediction Settings 1 Simulated 1 (2050) Reset 2 new settings Simulated 2 (2050) Reset 3 new settings Simulated 3 (2050) Birth rate 2.2 2.6 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.0 Death rate 2.2 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.0 2.2 Population Growth 0% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0% 0% What factors did you use to make your prediction settings for 0% growth? How close was your prediction settings to a 0% growth rate? I assumed that the birth and death rates would need to be relatively close to each other for a stable population, which led me to estimate birth and death rates around 2.2. In the first run, the population growth was slightly higher than expected (0.6%), so I adjusted the rates until reaching a balance by Simulated 3 with 0% growth. Which of the three simulator runs best matched a 0% growth rate? Which of the two factors (birth rate or death rate) seems to have the strongest effect on the population growth rate? The third simulation (Simulated 3) achieved a 0% growth rate, with balanced birth and death rates at 2.0 and 2.2; and the birth rate seems to have the stronger influence on population growth as slight changes in the birth rate resulted in noticeable shifts in population growth. What could the Iraq government try to do in order to reach a zero growth rate? What kinds of challenges could the Iraqi government face in trying to implement those measures? According to my understanding, Iraq could promote family planning, education, and women's empowerment to encourage smaller family sizes. However, cultural norms and religious beliefs favoring larger families could pose significant challenges in promoting these changes, along with political instability. China is a country in which the government implemented a one child policy on families from 1980 to 2015 in an effort to control population growth. See the Case Study in Chapter 7 on p132 in the online textbook for a discussion of population trends in China. Select Social Impacts from the Lesson dropdown menu. Predict what the average death rate and the average birth rate would have to be for the Chinese population to stabilize or achieve a 0% growth rate by 2050, write your guesses in the appropriate column on the table. Use the Reset button on the simulator between runs to restore the original settings. After changing the parameters of Birth Rate and Death Rate according to your predictions, run the simulator to try to achieve a zero growth rate and record the results for birthrate, death rate and population growth under the Simulator 1 column. If your predicted Simulator 1 settings did not achieve 0% growth, reset the simulator to 2015 settings and change the settings again to try to achieve 0% growth, and record your new settings under Reset 2. Run the model and record your results under Simulated 2. If your predicted Simulator 2 settings did not achieve 0% growth, reset the simulator to 2015 settings and change the settings again to try to achieve 0% growth, and record your new settings under Reset 3. Run the model and record your results under Simulated 3. Answer the questions that follow the table about your results. China Prediction Settings 1 Simulated 1 (2050) Reset 2 new settings Simulated 2 (2050) Reset 3 new settings Simulated 3 (2050) Birth rate 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.4 Death rate 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.4 Population Growth 0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0% 0% What factors did you use to make your prediction settings for 0% growth? How close was your prediction settings to a 0% growth rate? I predicted that China's birth and death rates would need to be nearly equal, so I set both at 1.5 initially, which was really close, as the first simulation yielded a slight 0.1% growth, indicating I needed to make further adjustments to achieve 0%. Which of the three simulator runs best matched a 0% growth rate? Which of the two factors (birth rate or death rate) seems to have the strongest effect on the population growth rate? Simulated 3 best matched the 0% growth rate, where both birth and death rates were balanced at 1.4. The birth rate had the strongest influence on population growth, as even slight changes in the birth rate affected growth. Did Chinas one child policy have the effect on population growth the government intended? What factors do you base this on? Based on the datasets observed, the one-child policy drastically reduced population growth, but it also led to long-term demographic challenges, such as an aging population and a skewed gender ratio; wherein, the low birth rate seen in current trends is a direct consequence of this policy. Considering the impact on natural resources (agriculture, energy, etc.) that population growth can have, do you think the Chinese government was justified in its policy? Why or why not? less extreme policies like family planning education might have achieved similar results without long-term consequences; although the policy helped control population growth and relieved pressure on resources, it created significant social and demographic issues Given the possible negative impacts in areas with high population growth rates, what are some factors that may make members of those populations migrate within a country or emigrate to different countries? According to my understanding certain factors like higher rates of unemployment, resource scarcity and poorer allocation, environmental degradation, and lack of social services often push people to migrate wherein socioeconomic opportunities alongside political stability, and better living conditions in other regions or countries attract migrants. Considering population trends, what are some factors that might make a country want to encourage immigration into it? What are some of the issues immigrants might bring with them to a new country, and how could that country manage potential problems? According to my understanding certain factors like certain challenges like cultural integration, strain on public services, and housing could arise; and on the other side, several countries with aging population could lead to immigration filling labor shortages and sustain economic growth wherein in the long run it will demand governments to provide language and job training programs, supporting housing initiatives, and encouraging multicultural understanding.

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