Question.4216 - MGT 553. Risk and Quality MangementAssignment 3George’s Thanksgiving TripGeorge is invited by his sister, Dorothy, to attend a family reunion during the Thanksgiving weekend. Dorothy lives in Denver, NY, about 90 miles northeast of New York City. George lives in Washington, DC, about 215 miles south of New York City. George decides to visit Dorothy and to travel to her place by car.The only problem is that road traffic during the Thanksgiving holidays is terrible along the East Coast of the United States. George would normally travel to Dorothy’s house by taking Interstate Highway 95. This is the major link connecting Washington and New York City. However, during Thanksgiving, the traffic on I-95 is usually bad, leading to major delays.George decides to explore an alternate route to traveling to Dorothy’s. This route would be a few miles longer. Also, he would encounter a 60 mile segment of road in a rural area, and he would have to travel slowly on this segment. The good feature about the alternate route is that it is unlikely to suffer from Thanksgiving traffic.A map showing the two routes to Dorothy’s house is offered in Figure 1.Based on his experience in traveling along I-95 during Thanksgiving holidays, George has developed a good sense of the likelihood of delays that he can encounter on the journey. Table 1 shows the probability distributions he has created for all the segments of his trip to Dorothy for both the I-95 route and the alternate route.AssignmentUsing the information supplied in Figure 1 and Table 1, determine the expected amount of time it will take George to travel from Washington, DC to his sister’s house, employing both the I-95 and alternate route. SHOW YOUR WORK, DEMONSRATING HOW YOU ARRIVED AT THE ANSWERS YOU PROVIDE. ©2019 University of Management and Technology 1 Risk and Quality ManagementFigure 1. Two Routes toGeorge’s Sister’s House Sister’s HouseUpstate, New YorkEast Branch60 miles Binghamton 50 miles 10 milesKingston80 miles30 miles New York City Scranton 130 miles 175 miles Legend Highway, 70 miles per hour Rural road, 40 miles per hour Baltimore 40 miles George’s houseWashington, DC ©2019 University of Management and Technology 2 Risk and Quality Management Probability Distributions for Travel Times on Journey Probability Probability Probability Probability Probability 10% 20% 30% 40% achieving longer longer longer longer Regular Route schedule than than than than (East Route) schedule schedule schedule schedule Segment Washington- 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 Baltimore Baltimore-New 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.2 York City New York City- 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 Kingston Kingston-Sister's 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Home Probability Probability Probability Probability Probability of 10% 20% 30% 40% longer longer longer longer achieving Alternate Route than than than than schedule (West Route) schedule schedule schedule schedule Segment Washington- 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 Baltimore Baltimore- 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Binghamton Binghamton-E 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Branch E Branch-Sister's 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Home

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